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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 1 at the 41

Dallas Cowboys 30 – Green Bay Packers 16

What Actually Happened

(:30) 21-E.Elliott up the middle to GB 38 for 3 yards (50-B.Martinez).

The Three Options

GO +0.32 EP
What Happened
  • 69% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 40, worth +0.73 EP
  • 31% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 41, worth -0.58 EP
KICK +0.85 EP
Model's Pick
  • 46% chance to make a 58-yard field goal: 3 points, then Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.78 EP
  • 54% chance to miss: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 49, worth -0.78 EP
PUNT -0.04 EP
  • Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 12, worth -0.04 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.53 EP