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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Green Bay Packers 4th & 10 at the 16

Green Bay Packers 6 – Dallas Cowboys 20

What Actually Happened

(14:51) 2-M.Crosby 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-61-B.Goode, Holder-10-J.Schum.

The Three Options

GO +1.26 EP
  • 29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 6, worth +5.57 EP
  • 71% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 16, worth -0.48 EP
KICK +1.97 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 93% chance to make a 33-yard field goal: 3 points, then Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.19 EP
  • 7% chance to miss: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 26, worth -0.88 EP
PUNT +0.11 EP
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 11, worth +0.11 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model