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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Green Bay Packers 4th & 5 at the 38

Green Bay Packers 6 – Dallas Cowboys 10

What Actually Happened

(2:15) (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers pass incomplete deep left to 18-R.Cobb (31-B.Jones).

The Three Options

GO +0.02 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 33, worth +2.94 EP
  • 58% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 38, worth -2.08 EP
KICK -0.47 EP
  • 54% chance to make a 55-yard field goal: 3 points, then Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.31 EP
  • 46% chance to miss: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 47, worth -2.55 EP
PUNT -0.93 EP
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 11, worth -0.93 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model