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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 1 at the 56

Dallas Cowboys 7 – Green Bay Packers 3

What Actually Happened

(3:12) 6-C.Jones punts 42 yards to GB 14, Center-91-L.Ladouceur, fair catch by 11-T.Davis.

The Three Options

GO +0.25 EP
Model's Pick
  • 70% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 55, worth +1.76 EP
  • 30% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 56, worth -3.32 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (73 yards).

PUNT -1.23 EP
What Happened
  • Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 17, worth -1.23 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.48 EP