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Chicago Bears

HC John Fox
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Indianapolis Colts

HC Chuck Pagano
Sunday 2016-10-09 · 13:00 Lucas Oil Stadium, Indianapolis US ☀️ Clear Spread 4.0 O/U 47.5

Win Probability

CHI
42.3%
IND
57.7%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>slight edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • CHI offense: -0.066 EPA/play over its last 8 games (22nd in the league)
  • IND offense: -0.077 EPA/play over its last 8 games (25th in the league)
  • CHI defense: +0.089 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (28th in the league)
  • IND defense: +0.037 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (22nd in the league)
  • QB edge to CHI: Andrew Luck (IND) -0.038 vs Brian Hoyer (CHI) -0.031 EPA/dropback

Predicted Final Score

CHI 20
–
IND 23
Projected margin: IND by 3 Projected total: 43

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 5

CHI

Kevin White WR Out Ankle
Jay Cutler QB Doubtful right Thumb
Eddie Goldman DT Doubtful Ankle
Deiondre' Hall CB Doubtful Ankle
Jeremy Langford RB Doubtful Ankle
Charles Leno T Questionable Illness
Eddie Royal WR Questionable Calf
Jonathan Bullard DE Questionable Shoulder
Ka'Deem Carey RB Questionable Hamstring
Leonard Floyd LB Questionable Calf
Alshon Jeffery WR Questionable Knee
Nick Kwiatkoski LB Questionable Elbow
Sherrick McManis CB Questionable Hamstring
Zach Miller TE Questionable Ribs
Tracy Porter CB Questionable Knee
Josh Sitton G Questionable Shoulder
Danny Trevathan LB Questionable Thumb
Willie Young LB Questionable Knee

IND

Jonotthan Harrison C Out Illness
Donte Moncrief WR Out Shoulder
Robert Mathis LB Questionable Foot
Robert Turbin RB Questionable Wrist
Darius Butler CB Questionable Hamstring
Denzelle Good T Questionable Back
Joe Reitz T Questionable Back

Pulled fresh for 2016 week 5 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

CHI 23
–
IND 29

Prediction missed by 3 pts on margin, 9 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 08:29 FG CHI (8:29) 4-C.Barth 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-P.Scales, Holder-16-P.O'Donnell. CHI 3 – IND 0
  • Q1 05:15 FG IND (5:15) 4-A.Vinatieri 54 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-M.Overton, Holder-1-P.McAfee. CHI 3 – IND 3
  • Q2 13:03 TD IND (13:03) (Run formation) 76-J.Reitz reported in as eligible. 12-A.Luck pass short middle to 83-D.Allen for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. CHI 3 – IND 9
  • Q2 08:27 FG CHI (8:27) 4-C.Barth 49 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-P.Scales, Holder-16-P.O'Donnell. CHI 6 – IND 10
  • Q2 06:13 FG IND (6:13) 4-A.Vinatieri 53 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-M.Overton, Holder-1-P.McAfee. CHI 6 – IND 13
  • Q2 03:43 TD CHI (3:43) (Run formation) 2-B.Hoyer pass short right to 81-C.Meredith for 14 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CHI 12 – IND 13
  • Q2 00:16 FG IND (:16) 4-A.Vinatieri 26 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-M.Overton, Holder-1-P.McAfee. CHI 13 – IND 16
  • Q3 05:58 FG IND (5:58) 4-A.Vinatieri 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-M.Overton, Holder-1-P.McAfee. CHI 13 – IND 19
  • Q4 13:36 FG CHI (13:36) 4-C.Barth 24 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-P.Scales, Holder-16-P.O'Donnell. CHI 16 – IND 19
  • Q4 07:12 TD CHI (7:12) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 2-B.Hoyer pass short middle to 24-J.Howard for 21 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CHI 22 – IND 19
  • Q4 03:51 TD IND (3:51) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 12-A.Luck pass deep middle to 13-T.Hilton for 35 yards, TOUCHDOWN [49-S.Acho]. CHI 23 – IND 25
  • Q4 02:33 FG IND (2:33) 4-A.Vinatieri 46 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-M.Overton, Holder-1-P.McAfee. CHI 23 – IND 29

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 CHI 4th & 16 at the 17
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 22% p(FG) 92%

    (8:29) 4-C.Barth 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-P.Scales, Holder-16-P.O'Donnell.

  • Q1 IND 4th & 11 at the 36
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29% p(FG) 62%

    (5:15) 4-A.Vinatieri 54 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-M.Overton, Holder-1-P.McAfee.

  • Q1 CHI 4th & 1 at the 66
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.99 EP
    p(convert) 70%

    (3:50) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 46 yards to IND 20, Center-48-P.Scales, fair catch by 11-Q.Bray.

  • Q2 IND 4th & 1 at the 1
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 63% p(FG) 98%

    (13:03) (Run formation) 76-J.Reitz reported in as eligible. 12-A.Luck pass short middle to 83-D.Allen for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.

  • Q2 CHI 4th & 13 at the 31
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 26% p(FG) 73%

    (8:27) 4-C.Barth 49 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-P.Scales, Holder-16-P.O'Donnell.

  • Q2 IND 4th & 1 at the 35
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.52 EP
    p(convert) 67% p(FG) 64%

    (6:13) 4-A.Vinatieri 53 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-M.Overton, Holder-1-P.McAfee.

  • Q2 IND 4th & 8 at the 8
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30% p(FG) 97%

    (:16) 4-A.Vinatieri 26 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-M.Overton, Holder-1-P.McAfee.

  • Q3 IND 4th & 1 at the 66
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.12 EP
    p(convert) 71%

    (13:17) 1-P.McAfee punts 66 yards to end zone, Center-45-M.Overton, Touchback.

  • Q3 CHI 4th & 8 at the 58
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36%

    (11:15) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 46 yards to IND 12, Center-48-P.Scales. 11-Q.Bray to IND 32 for 20 yards (49-S.Acho).

  • Q3 IND 4th & 8 at the 23
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32% p(FG) 86%

    (5:58) 4-A.Vinatieri 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-M.Overton, Holder-1-P.McAfee.

  • Q3 CHI 4th & 4 at the 31
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 43% p(FG) 73%

    (4:06) 4-C.Barth 49 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-48-P.Scales, Holder-16-P.O'Donnell.

  • Q3 IND 4th & 15 at the 66
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28%

    (2:53) 1-P.McAfee punts 50 yards to CHI 16, Center-45-M.Overton, fair catch by 22-C.LeBlanc. Penalty on CHI-47-P.Lasike, Running Into the Kicker, declined.

  • Q4 CHI 4th & 5 at the 6
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.57 EP
    p(convert) 37% p(FG) 98%

    (13:36) 4-C.Barth 24 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-P.Scales, Holder-16-P.O'Donnell.

  • Q4 IND 4th & 13 at the 78
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31%

    (12:04) 1-P.McAfee punts 74 yards to CHI 4, Center-45-M.Overton, downed by IND-41-M.Farley.

  • Q4 IND 4th & 9 at the 28 late-game
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31% p(FG) 79%

    (2:33) 4-A.Vinatieri 46 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-M.Overton, Holder-1-P.McAfee.

  • Q4 CHI 4th & 8 at the 28 late-game
    Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +1.19 EP
    p(convert) 32% p(FG) 79%

    (1:02) (Shotgun) 2-B.Hoyer pass incomplete deep right to 81-C.Meredith.