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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 1 at the 35

Indianapolis Colts 10 – Chicago Bears 6

What Actually Happened

(6:13) 4-A.Vinatieri 53 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-M.Overton, Holder-1-P.McAfee.

The Three Options

GO +2.04 EP
Model's Pick
  • 67% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 34, worth +3.76 EP
  • 33% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 35, worth -1.45 EP
KICK +0.58 EP
What Happened
  • 66% chance to make a 52-yard field goal: 3 points, then Chicago Bears takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.01 EP
  • 34% chance to miss: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 45, worth -2.11 EP
PUNT -0.18 EP
  • Chicago Bears would take over around their own 11, worth -0.18 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.46 EP