4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Chicago Bears 4th & 1 at the 66

Chicago Bears 3 – Indianapolis Colts 3

What Actually Happened

(3:50) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 46 yards to IND 20, Center-48-P.Scales, fair catch by 11-Q.Bray.

The Three Options

GO -0.18 EP
Model's Pick
  • 70% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.36 EP
  • 30% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 66, worth -3.82 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (83 yards).

PUNT -1.17 EP
What Happened
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 24, worth -1.17 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.99 EP