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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Chicago Bears 4th & 8 at the 58

Chicago Bears 13 – Indianapolis Colts 16

What Actually Happened

(11:15) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 46 yards to IND 12, Center-48-P.Scales. 11-Q.Bray to IND 32 for 20 yards (49-S.Acho).

The Three Options

GO -1.08 EP
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 50, worth +2.75 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 58, worth -3.19 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (75 yards).

PUNT -0.82 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 18, worth -0.82 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model