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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Chicago Bears 4th & 5 at the 6

Chicago Bears 13 – Indianapolis Colts 19

What Actually Happened

(13:36) 4-C.Barth 24 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-P.Scales, Holder-16-P.O'Donnell.

The Three Options

GO +2.36 EP
Model's Pick
  • 37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 1, worth +6.40 EP
  • 63% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 6, worth +0.03 EP
KICK +1.79 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 23-yard field goal: 3 points, then Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.86 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 21, worth -0.87 EP
PUNT -0.18 EP
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 11, worth -0.18 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.57 EP