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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Chicago Bears 4th & 8 at the 28

Chicago Bears 23 – Indianapolis Colts 29

What Actually Happened

(1:02) (Shotgun) 2-B.Hoyer pass incomplete deep right to 81-C.Meredith.

The Three Options

GO +0.52 EP
What Happened
  • 32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 20, worth +2.98 EP
  • 68% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 28, worth -0.64 EP
KICK +1.74 EP
Model's Pick
  • 80% chance to make a 45-yard field goal: 3 points, then Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.45 EP
  • 20% chance to miss: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 38, worth -1.05 EP
PUNT -0.13 EP
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 11, worth -0.13 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +1.22 EP