DET @ CHI — 4th & Data

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HC Jim Caldwell

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HC John Fox

Sunday 2016-10-02 · 13:00 Soldier Field, Chicago US ☀️ Clear Spread -3.0 O/U 48.0

Win Probability

DET

65.0%

CHI

35.0%

☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>clear edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

DET offense: +0.135 EPA/play over its last 8 games (2nd in the league)
CHI offense: -0.091 EPA/play over its last 8 games (25th in the league)
CHI defense: +0.095 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (28th in the league)
QB edge to DET: Brian Hoyer (CHI) -0.023 vs Matthew Stafford (DET) +0.151 EPA/dropback
DET defense: +0.125 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (30th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

DET 25

–

CHI 20

Projected margin: DET by 5 Projected total: 45

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 4

DET

Ezekiel Ansah DE Out Ankle

DeAndre Levy LB Out Quadricep

Adairius Barnes CB Questionable Ankle

Eric Ebron TE Questionable Ankle

Wallace Gilberry DE Questionable Abdomen

Marvin Jones WR Questionable Hamstring

Riley Reiff T Questionable Ankle

Devin Taylor DE Questionable Ankle

Antwione Williams LB Questionable Hamstring

Tavon Wilson S Questionable Neck

CHI

Ka'Deem Carey RB Doubtful Hamstring

Jay Cutler QB Doubtful right Thumb

Eddie Goldman DT Doubtful Ankle

Jeremy Langford RB Doubtful Ankle

Danny Trevathan LB Doubtful Thumb

Harold Jones-Quartey S Questionable Concussion

Jonathan Bullard DE Questionable Toe

Alshon Jeffery WR Questionable Hamstring

Sherrick McManis CB Questionable Hamstring

Tracy Porter CB Questionable Knee

Josh Sitton G Questionable Shoulder

Willie Young LB Questionable Knee

Pulled fresh for 2016 week 4 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

DET 14

–

CHI 17

Prediction missed by 8 pts on margin, 14 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

Q1 06:43 TD CHI (6:43) (Shotgun) 2-B.Hoyer pass short right to 19-E.Royal for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DET 0 – CHI 6
Q2 02:24 FG DET (2:24) (Field Goal formation) 5-M.Prater 50 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, Holder-6-S.Martin. DET 3 – CHI 7
Q3 07:21 FG DET (7:21) (Field Goal formation) 5-M.Prater 21 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, Holder-6-S.Martin. DET 6 – CHI 7
Q3 03:39 TD CHI (3:39) (Shotgun) 2-B.Hoyer pass short right to 86-Z.Miller for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DET 6 – CHI 13
Q4 10:13 FG CHI (10:13) (Field Goal formation) 4-C.Barth 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-P.Scales, Holder-16-P.O'Donnell. DET 6 – CHI 17
Q4 02:12 TD DET (2:12) (Punt formation) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 48 yards to DET 15, Center-48-P.Scales. 12-A.Roberts for 85 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on CHI, Illegal Formation, declined. DET 12 – CHI 17

Fourth-Down Decisions

Q1 CHI 4th & 11 at the 51

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 30% p(FG) 24%

(13:10) (Punt formation) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 51 yards to end zone, Center-48-P.Scales, Touchback.
Q1 DET 4th & 3 at the 73

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.54 EP

p(convert) 58%

(11:50) (Punt formation) 6-S.Martin punts 53 yards to CHI 20, Center-48-D.Muhlbach. 19-E.Royal pushed ob at CHI 40 for 20 yards (50-T.Armbrister). PENALTY on CHI-36-D.Houston-Carson, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at CHI 27.
Q1 DET 4th & 18 at the 92

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 31%

(6:10) (Punt formation) 6-S.Martin punts 51 yards to CHI 41, Center-48-D.Muhlbach. 19-E.Royal to CHI 43 for 2 yards (26-D.Carey).
Q1 CHI 4th & 12 at the 46

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 29% p(FG) 35%

(3:37) (Punt formation) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 46 yards to end zone, Center-48-P.Scales, Touchback.
Q1 DET 4th & 8 at the 68

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 41%

(:50) (Punt formation) 6-S.Martin punts 57 yards to CHI 11, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, fair catch by 19-E.Royal.
Q2 CHI 4th & 1 at the 70

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.14 EP

p(convert) 71%

(12:01) (Punt formation) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 51 yards to DET 19, Center-48-P.Scales. 12-A.Roberts pushed ob at DET 34 for 15 yards (31-C.Prosinski).
Q2 DET 4th & 6 at the 62

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 45%

(11:06) (Punt formation) 6-S.Martin punts 50 yards to CHI 12, Center-48-D.Muhlbach. 19-E.Royal pushed ob at CHI 20 for 8 yards (51-B.Copeland).
Q2 CHI 4th & 1 at the 36

Chose GO ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 67% p(FG) 61%

(6:35) (Run formation) 43-J.Bell left guard to DET 38 for -2 yards (91-A.Robinson).
Q2 DET 4th & 2 at the 31

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.96 EP

p(convert) 59% p(FG) 72%

(2:24) (Field Goal formation) 5-M.Prater 50 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, Holder-6-S.Martin.
Q2 CHI 4th & 8 at the 32

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 33% p(FG) 70%

(:44) (Field Goal formation) 4-C.Barth 50 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-48-P.Scales, Holder-16-P.O'Donnell. DET-26-D.Carey was injured during the play.
Q3 DET 4th & 3 at the 3

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.10 EP

p(convert) 49% p(FG) 98%

(7:21) (Field Goal formation) 5-M.Prater 21 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, Holder-6-S.Martin.
Q3 DET 4th & 6 at the 54

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.33 EP

p(convert) 44%

(1:07) (Punt formation) 6-S.Martin punts 34 yards to CHI 20, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, fair catch by 19-E.Royal.
Q4 CHI 4th & 3 at the 7

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.79 EP

p(convert) 46% p(FG) 97%

(10:13) (Field Goal formation) 4-C.Barth 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-P.Scales, Holder-16-P.O'Donnell.
Q4 CHI 4th & 4 at the 63 late-game

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 48%

(2:12) (Punt formation) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 48 yards to DET 15, Center-48-P.Scales. 12-A.Roberts for 85 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on CHI, Illegal Formation, declined.