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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Detroit Lions 4th & 2 at the 31

Detroit Lions 0 – Chicago Bears 7

What Actually Happened

(2:24) (Field Goal formation) 5-M.Prater 50 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, Holder-6-S.Martin.

The Three Options

GO +1.75 EP
Model's Pick
  • 59% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 29, worth +4.01 EP
  • 41% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 31, worth -1.56 EP
KICK +0.79 EP
What Happened
  • 72% chance to make a 48-yard field goal: 3 points, then Chicago Bears takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.84 EP
  • 28% chance to miss: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 41, worth -1.97 EP
PUNT -0.35 EP
  • Chicago Bears would take over around their own 11, worth -0.35 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.96 EP