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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Chicago Bears 4th & 3 at the 7

Chicago Bears 14 – Detroit Lions 6

What Actually Happened

(10:13) (Field Goal formation) 4-C.Barth 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-P.Scales, Holder-16-P.O'Donnell.

The Three Options

GO +2.58 EP
Model's Pick
  • 46% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 4, worth +5.81 EP
  • 54% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 7, worth -0.14 EP
KICK +1.79 EP
What Happened
  • 97% chance to make a 24-yard field goal: 3 points, then Detroit Lions takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.86 EP
  • 3% chance to miss: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 21, worth -0.91 EP
PUNT -0.32 EP
  • Detroit Lions would take over around their own 11, worth -0.32 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.79 EP