4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Detroit Lions 4th & 6 at the 62

Detroit Lions 0 – Chicago Bears 7

What Actually Happened

(11:06) (Punt formation) 6-S.Martin punts 50 yards to CHI 12, Center-48-D.Muhlbach. 19-E.Royal pushed ob at CHI 20 for 8 yards (51-B.Copeland).

The Three Options

GO -0.99 EP
Model's Pick
  • 45% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 56, worth +2.20 EP
  • 55% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 62, worth -3.60 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (79 yards).

PUNT -1.14 EP
What Happened
  • Chicago Bears would take over around their own 21, worth -1.14 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model