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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Chicago Bears 4th & 11 at the 51

Chicago Bears 0 – Detroit Lions 0

What Actually Happened

(13:10) (Punt formation) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 51 yards to end zone, Center-48-P.Scales, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -0.67 EP
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 40, worth +3.73 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 51, worth -2.59 EP
KICK -1.42 EP
  • 24% chance to make a 68-yard field goal: 3 points, then Detroit Lions takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.35 EP
  • 76% chance to miss: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 49, worth -2.59 EP
PUNT -0.20 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Detroit Lions would take over around their own 14, worth -0.20 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model