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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Chicago Bears 4th & 1 at the 36

Chicago Bears 7 – Detroit Lions 0

What Actually Happened

(6:35) (Run formation) 43-J.Bell left guard to DET 38 for -2 yards (91-A.Robinson).

The Three Options

GO +1.93 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 67% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 35, worth +3.73 EP
  • 33% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 36, worth -1.79 EP
KICK +0.09 EP
  • 61% chance to make a 53-yard field goal: 3 points, then Detroit Lions takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.75 EP
  • 39% chance to miss: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 46, worth -2.45 EP
PUNT -0.44 EP
  • Detroit Lions would take over around their own 11, worth -0.44 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model