4th & Data
EN ES
← Home
ATL Away

Atlanta Falcons

HC Dan Quinn
@
OAK Home

Oakland Raiders

HC Jack Del Rio
Sunday 2016-09-18 · 16:25 Oakland-Alameda County Coliseum, Oakland US ☀️ Clear Spread 4.0 O/U 47.5

Win Probability

ATL
48.5%
OAK
51.5%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>coin flip</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • LV offense: -0.138 EPA/play over its last 8 games (28th in the league)
  • QB edge to ATL: Derek Carr (LV) -0.015 vs Matt Ryan (ATL) +0.113 EPA/dropback
  • ATL offense: -0.034 EPA/play over its last 8 games (17th in the league)
  • ATL defense: +0.097 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (30th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

ATL 23
–
OAK 24
Projected margin: OAK by 1 Projected total: 47

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 2

ATL

De'Vondre Campbell LB Out Ankle
Keanu Neal S Out Knee
Brooks Reed DE Questionable Shoulder

OAK

Matt McCants T Doubtful Knee
Menelik Watson T Doubtful Groin
Rodney Hudson C Questionable Knee
Gabe Jackson G Questionable Knee
Taiwan Jones RB Questionable Concussion

Pulled fresh for 2016 week 2 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

ATL 35
–
OAK 28

Prediction missed by 8 pts on margin, 16 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q2 12:01 FG ATL (12:01) 3-M.Bryant 21 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-5-M.Bosher. ATL 3 – OAK 0
  • Q2 07:54 TD LV (7:54) 74-V.Alexander reported in as eligible. 28-L.Murray left guard for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. ATL 3 – OAK 6
  • Q2 04:51 TD ATL (4:51) (No Huddle) 2-M.Ryan pass short middle to 11-J.Jones for 21 yards, TOUCHDOWN. ATL 9 – OAK 7
  • Q2 00:40 FG ATL (:40) 3-M.Bryant 20 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-5-M.Bosher. ATL 13 – OAK 7
  • Q3 11:24 TD LV (11:24) 4-D.Carr pass deep left to 88-C.Walford for 31 yards, TOUCHDOWN. ATL 13 – OAK 13
  • Q3 03:50 TD ATL (3:50) (No Huddle) 2-M.Ryan pass short middle to 83-J.Tamme for 14 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on LV-51-B.Irvin, Defensive Holding, declined. ATL 19 – OAK 14
  • Q4 12:03 TD LV (12:03) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass short right to 15-M.Crabtree for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. ATL 21 – OAK 20
  • Q4 09:35 TD ATL (9:35) (Shotgun) 2-M.Ryan pass short right to 16-J.Hardy for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Pass deflected by ATL-26 ATL 27 – OAK 21
  • Q4 04:41 TD ATL (4:41) 26-T.Coleman up the middle for 13 yards, TOUCHDOWN. LV-29-D.Amerson was injured during the play. His return is Probable. ATL 34 – OAK 21
  • Q4 02:20 TD LV (2:20) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass short right to 18-A.Holmes for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN. ATL 35 – OAK 27

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 ATL 4th & 9 at the 35
    Chose PUNT Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.39 EP
    p(convert) 31% p(FG) 62%

    (10:46) 5-M.Bosher punts 29 yards to LV 6, Center-47-J.Harris, fair catch by 38-T.Carrie.

  • Q1 LV 4th & 3 at the 71
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 53%

    (7:28) 7-M.King punts 64 yards to ATL 7, Center-59-J.Condo. 14-E.Weems to ATL 8 for 1 yard (41-B.Trawick; 56-D.Bates). PENALTY on ATL-53-L.Reynolds, Offensive Holding, 3 yards, enforced at ATL 7.

  • Q1 ATL 4th & 4 at the 79
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 49%

    (4:27) 5-M.Bosher punts 43 yards to LV 36, Center-47-J.Harris. 30-J.Richard to LV 36 for no gain (29-C.Goodwin).

  • Q1 LV 4th & 5 at the 49
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 41% p(FG) 27%

    (2:02) 7-M.King punts 40 yards to ATL 9, Center-59-J.Condo, downed by LV-57-C.James.

  • Q2 ATL 4th & 2 at the 3
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.69 EP
    p(convert) 51% p(FG) 98%

    (12:01) 3-M.Bryant 21 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-5-M.Bosher.

  • Q2 LV 4th & 11 at the 64
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31%

    (1:53) 7-M.King punts 55 yards to ATL 9, Center-59-J.Condo. 14-E.Weems to LV 18 for 73 yards (7-M.King). PENALTY on LV-7-M.King, Horse Collar Tackle, 9 yards, enforced at LV 18.

  • Q2 ATL 4th & 2 at the 2
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.03 EP
    p(convert) 51% p(FG) 98%

    (:40) 3-M.Bryant 20 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-5-M.Bosher.

  • Q3 LV 4th & 7 at the 67
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38%

    (5:45) 7-M.King punts 52 yards to ATL 15, Center-59-J.Condo, fair catch by 14-E.Weems.

  • Q4 LV 4th & 2 at the 2
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 51% p(FG) 98%

    (12:03) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass short right to 15-M.Crabtree for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

  • Q4 LV 4th & 2 at the 51
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 57% p(FG) 23%

    (7:16) 30-J.Richard up the middle to 50 for 1 yard (36-K.Ishmael).

  • Q4 ATL 4th & 5 at the 60 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 43%

    (:10) 5-M.Bosher punts 60 yards to end zone, Center-47-J.Harris, Touchback.