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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 2 at the 3

Atlanta Falcons 0 – Las Vegas Raiders 0

What Actually Happened

(12:01) 3-M.Bryant 21 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-5-M.Bosher.

The Three Options

GO +3.26 EP
Model's Pick
  • 51% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 1, worth +6.34 EP
  • 49% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 3, worth +0.02 EP
KICK +1.57 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 20-yard field goal: 3 points, then Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.62 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 21, worth -1.08 EP
PUNT -0.42 EP
  • Las Vegas Raiders would take over around their own 11, worth -0.42 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.69 EP