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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 4 at the 79

Atlanta Falcons 0 – Las Vegas Raiders 0

What Actually Happened

(4:27) 5-M.Bosher punts 43 yards to LV 36, Center-47-J.Harris. 30-J.Richard to LV 36 for no gain (29-C.Goodwin).

The Three Options

GO -2.02 EP
Model's Pick
  • 49% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 75, worth +0.70 EP
  • 51% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 79, worth -4.67 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (96 yards).

PUNT -2.21 EP
What Happened
  • Las Vegas Raiders would take over around their own 36, worth -2.21 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model