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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 2 at the 2

Las Vegas Raiders 14 – Atlanta Falcons 21

What Actually Happened

(12:03) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass short right to 15-M.Crabtree for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

The Three Options

GO +3.40 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 51% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.91 EP
  • 49% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 2, worth +0.82 EP
KICK +1.93 EP
  • 98% chance to make a 19-yard field goal: 3 points, then Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.98 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 21, worth -0.80 EP
PUNT -0.17 EP
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 11, worth -0.17 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model