Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 11 at the 64

Las Vegas Raiders 7 – Atlanta Falcons 10

What Actually Happened

(1:53) 7-M.King punts 55 yards to ATL 9, Center-59-J.Condo. 14-E.Weems to LV 18 for 73 yards (7-M.King). PENALTY on LV-7-M.King, Horse Collar Tackle, 9 yards, enforced at LV 18.

The Three Options

GO -1.46 EP

31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 53, worth +2.49 EP
69% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 64, worth -3.23 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (81 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model