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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 2 at the 51

Las Vegas Raiders 21 – Atlanta Falcons 28

What Actually Happened

(7:16) 30-J.Richard up the middle to 50 for 1 yard (36-K.Ishmael).

The Three Options

GO +0.29 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 57% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 49, worth +2.42 EP
  • 43% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 51, worth -2.53 EP
KICK -1.56 EP
  • 23% chance to make a 68-yard field goal: 3 points, then Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.69 EP
  • 77% chance to miss: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 49, worth -2.53 EP
PUNT -0.76 EP
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 14, worth -0.76 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model