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PIT Away

Pittsburgh Steelers

HC Mike Tomlin
@
WAS Home

Washington Commanders

HC Jay Gruden
Monday 2016-09-12 · 19:10 FedExField, Landover US ☀️ Clear Spread -2.5 O/U 49.0

Win Probability

PIT
44.8%
WAS
55.2%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>slight edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • PIT defense: -0.106 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (9th in the league)
  • PIT offense: +0.023 EPA/play over its last 8 games (7th in the league)
  • QB edge to WAS: Kirk Cousins (WAS) +0.171 vs Ben Roethlisberger (PIT) +0.118 EPA/dropback

Predicted Final Score

PIT 23
–
WAS 25
Projected margin: WAS by 2 Projected total: 48

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 1

PIT

Senquez Golson CB Out Foot
Roosevelt Nix RB Out Back
Cody Wallace C Out Knee
Markus Wheaton WR Out Shoulder

WAS

Kedric Golston DT Questionable Back
Josh Doctson WR Questionable Achilles
Matt Jones RB Questionable Shoulder
Spencer Long G Questionable Ankle
Kendall Reyes DE Questionable Groin

Pulled fresh for 2016 week 1 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

PIT 38
–
WAS 16

Prediction missed by 24 pts on margin, 6 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 06:01 FG WAS (6:01) 3-D.Hopkins 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-57-N.Sundberg, Holder-5-T.Way. PIT 0 – WAS 3
  • Q1 01:13 FG WAS (1:13) 3-D.Hopkins 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-57-N.Sundberg, Holder-5-T.Way. Penalty on PIT-25-A.Burns, Defensive Offside, declined. PIT 0 – WAS 6
  • Q2 10:18 TD PIT (10:18) 7-B.Roethlisberger pass deep left to 84-A.Brown for 29 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PIT 6 – WAS 6
  • Q2 00:31 TD PIT (:31) (Shotgun) 7-B.Roethlisberger pass short left to 17-E.Rogers for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PIT 13 – WAS 6
  • Q3 11:23 FG PIT (11:23) 9-C.Boswell 46 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-60-G.Warren, Holder-4-J.Berry. PIT 17 – WAS 6
  • Q3 07:08 TD PIT (7:08) (Shotgun) 7-B.Roethlisberger pass deep left to 84-A.Brown for 26 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PENALTY on PIT-84-A.Brown, Unsportsmanlike Conduct, 15 yards, enforced between downs. PIT 23 – WAS 6
  • Q3 02:04 FG WAS (2:04) 3-D.Hopkins 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-57-N.Sundberg, Holder-5-T.Way. PIT 24 – WAS 9
  • Q4 13:05 TD WAS (13:05) (No Huddle) 25-C.Thompson right end for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. PIT 24 – WAS 15
  • Q4 05:55 TD PIT (5:55) (Shotgun) 34-D.Williams left end for 15 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PIT 30 – WAS 16
  • Q4 02:00 TD PIT (2:00) 34-D.Williams left end for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PIT 37 – WAS 16

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 WAS 4th & 1 at the 40
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.73 EP
    p(convert) 67% p(FG) 52%

    (11:25) 5-T.Way punts 27 yards to PIT 13, Center-57-N.Sundberg, fair catch by 17-E.Rogers.

  • Q1 PIT 4th & 2 at the 79
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.76 EP
    p(convert) 62%

    (9:30) 4-J.Berry punts 46 yards to WAS 33, Center-60-G.Warren, fair catch by 80-J.Crowder.

  • Q1 WAS 4th & 6 at the 13
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34% p(FG) 95%

    (6:01) 3-D.Hopkins 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-57-N.Sundberg, Holder-5-T.Way.

  • Q1 WAS 4th & 7 at the 23
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33% p(FG) 86%

    (1:13) 3-D.Hopkins 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-57-N.Sundberg, Holder-5-T.Way. Penalty on PIT-25-A.Burns, Defensive Offside, declined.

  • Q2 PIT 4th & 1 at the 29
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 67% p(FG) 77%

    (10:18) 7-B.Roethlisberger pass deep left to 84-A.Brown for 29 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

  • Q2 WAS 4th & 6 at the 38
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37% p(FG) 57%

    (6:27) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass short middle to 25-C.Thompson to PIT 33 for 5 yards (21-R.Golden).

  • Q2 PIT 4th & 1 at the 34
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 68% p(FG) 67%

    (1:24) (No Huddle) 7-B.Roethlisberger pass short middle to 17-E.Rogers to WAS 15 for 19 yards (26-B.Breeland).

  • Q3 PIT 4th & 3 at the 28
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.47 EP
    p(convert) 49% p(FG) 79%

    (11:23) 9-C.Boswell 46 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-60-G.Warren, Holder-4-J.Berry.

  • Q3 WAS 4th & 6 at the 16
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35% p(FG) 93%

    (2:04) 3-D.Hopkins 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-57-N.Sundberg, Holder-5-T.Way.

  • Q3 PIT 4th & 2 at the 67
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.56 EP
    p(convert) 61%

    (:31) 4-J.Berry punts 61 yards to WAS 6, Center-60-G.Warren. 80-J.Crowder to WAS 23 for 17 yards (98-V.Williams; 37-J.Dangerfield).

  • Q4 WAS 4th & 10 at the 63 late-game
    Chose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +0.74 EP
    p(convert) 32%

    (4:26) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins scrambles right end pushed ob at WAS 45 for 8 yards (55-A.Moats).