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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 2 at the 67

Pittsburgh Steelers 24 – Washington Commanders 9

What Actually Happened

(:31) 4-J.Berry punts 61 yards to WAS 6, Center-60-G.Warren. 80-J.Crowder to WAS 23 for 17 yards (98-V.Williams; 37-J.Dangerfield).

The Three Options

GO -0.57 EP
Model's Pick
  • 61% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.48 EP
  • 39% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 67, worth -3.77 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (84 yards).

PUNT -1.12 EP
What Happened
  • Washington Commanders would take over around their own 25, worth -1.12 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.56 EP