Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Washington Commanders 4th & 10 at the 63

Washington Commanders 16 – Pittsburgh Steelers 31

(4:26) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins scrambles right end pushed ob at WAS 45 for 8 yards (55-A.Moats).

The Three Options

GO -1.45 EP

What Happened

32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 53, worth +1.98 EP
68% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 63, worth -3.10 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (80 yards).

Chose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +0.74 EP