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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Washington Commanders 4th & 7 at the 23

Washington Commanders 3 – Pittsburgh Steelers 0

What Actually Happened

(1:13) 3-D.Hopkins 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-57-N.Sundberg, Holder-5-T.Way. Penalty on PIT-25-A.Burns, Defensive Offside, declined.

The Three Options

GO +1.25 EP
  • 33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 16, worth +4.99 EP
  • 67% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 23, worth -0.61 EP
KICK +1.81 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 86% chance to make a 40-yard field goal: 3 points, then Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.30 EP
  • 14% chance to miss: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 33, worth -1.33 EP
PUNT +0.18 EP
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 11, worth +0.18 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model