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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 1 at the 29

Pittsburgh Steelers 0 – Washington Commanders 6

What Actually Happened

(10:18) 7-B.Roethlisberger pass deep left to 84-A.Brown for 29 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

The Three Options

GO +2.28 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 67% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 28, worth +4.12 EP
  • 33% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 29, worth -1.48 EP
KICK +0.86 EP
  • 77% chance to make a 46-yard field goal: 3 points, then Washington Commanders takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.74 EP
  • 23% chance to miss: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 39, worth -2.14 EP
PUNT -0.24 EP
  • Washington Commanders would take over around their own 11, worth -0.24 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model