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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Washington Commanders 4th & 6 at the 16

Washington Commanders 6 – Pittsburgh Steelers 24

What Actually Happened

(2:04) 3-D.Hopkins 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-57-N.Sundberg, Holder-5-T.Way.

The Three Options

GO +1.52 EP
  • 35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 10, worth +5.35 EP
  • 65% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 16, worth -0.52 EP
KICK +1.94 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 93% chance to make a 33-yard field goal: 3 points, then Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.16 EP
  • 7% chance to miss: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 26, worth -0.93 EP
PUNT +0.04 EP
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 11, worth +0.04 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model