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Detroit Lions

HC Jim Caldwell
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Indianapolis Colts

HC Chuck Pagano
Sunday 2016-09-11 · 16:25 Lucas Oil Stadium, Indianapolis US ☀️ Clear Spread 2.5 O/U 51.5

Win Probability

DET
59.8%
IND
40.2%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>slight edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • DET offense: +0.102 EPA/play over its last 8 games (2nd in the league)
  • IND offense: -0.119 EPA/play over its last 8 games (26th in the league)
  • Andrew Luck (IND): -0.025 EPA/dropback in prior starts

Predicted Final Score

DET 23
–
IND 21
Projected margin: DET by 2 Projected total: 44

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 1

DET

Eric Ebron TE Questionable Ankle
Graham Glasgow C Questionable Toe
Corey Robinson T Questionable Ankle
Golden Tate WR Questionable Ankle

IND

Darius Butler CB Out Ankle
Vontae Davis CB Out Ankle
Clayton Geathers S Out Foot
Henry Anderson DT Out Knee
Jack Mewhort G Questionable Knee
Sio Moore LB Questionable Hamstring
Joe Haeg T Questionable Ankle

Pulled fresh for 2016 week 1 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

DET 39
–
IND 35

Prediction missed by 2 pts on margin, 30 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 04:51 TD DET (4:51) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 25-T.Riddick up the middle for 21 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DET 6 – IND 0
  • Q2 09:16 TD DET (9:16) (Run formation) 70-C.Robinson reported in as eligible. 36-D.Washington up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. DET 13 – IND 0
  • Q2 04:57 FG IND (4:57) 4-A.Vinatieri 50 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-M.Overton, Holder-1-P.McAfee. DET 14 – IND 3
  • Q2 01:43 TD DET (1:43) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short left to 85-E.Ebron for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DET 20 – IND 3
  • Q2 00:10 TD IND (:10) (Shotgun) 12-A.Luck pass short middle to 10-D.Moncrief for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DET 21 – IND 9
  • Q3 08:48 TD IND (8:48) (Shotgun) 12-A.Luck pass deep right to 83-D.Allen for 19 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DET 21 – IND 16
  • Q3 02:26 TD DET (2:26) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short left to 21-A.Abdullah for 11 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DET 27 – IND 18
  • Q4 14:22 FG IND (14:22) 4-A.Vinatieri 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-M.Overton, Holder-1-P.McAfee. DET 28 – IND 21
  • Q4 08:25 TD IND (8:25) (Shotgun) 12-A.Luck pass deep right to 84-J.Doyle for 16 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DET 28 – IND 27
  • Q4 04:11 TD DET (4:11) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short right to 25-T.Riddick for 13 yards, TOUCHDOWN [93-E.Walden]. DET 34 – IND 28
  • Q4 00:43 TD IND (:43) (Shotgun) 12-A.Luck pass short middle to 84-J.Doyle for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DET 34 – IND 34
  • Q4 00:08 FG DET (:08) 5-M.Prater 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, Holder-6-S.Martin. DET 37 – IND 35
  • Q4 00:04 SAF DET 6-S.Martin kicks 65 yards from DET 35 to IND 0. 11-Q.Bray to IND 12 for 12 yards. Lateral to 33-R.Turbin to IND 6 for -6 yards. Lateral to 10-D.Moncrief to IND 4 for -2 yards. Lateral to 13-T.Hilton to IND 5 for 1 yard. Lateral to 11-Q.Bray to IND 2 for -3 yards. Lateral to 84-J.Doyle to IND -4 for -6 yards. Lateral to 13-T.Hilton to IND -4 for no gain. 13-T.Hilton pass short left to 10-D.Moncrief to IND -5 for -1 yards. FUMBLES, ball out of bounds in End Zone, SAFETY NULLIFIED by Penalty. PENALTY on IND-13-T.Hilton, Illegal Forward Pass, 0 yards, enforced in End Zone, SAFETY. DET 39 – IND 35

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 IND 4th & 12 at the 48
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 27% p(FG) 31%

    (9:16) (Punt formation) 1-P.McAfee punts 48 yards to end zone, Center-45-M.Overton, Touchback.

  • Q1 IND 4th & 8 at the 73
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36%

    (3:18) 1-P.McAfee punts 52 yards to DET 21, Center-45-M.Overton. 12-A.Roberts to DET 20 for -1 yards (35-D.Morris).

  • Q1 DET 4th & 6 at the 76
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 45%

    (2:00) 6-S.Martin punts 57 yards to IND 19, Center-48-D.Muhlbach. 11-Q.Bray to IND 23 for 4 yards (26-D.Carey; 29-J.Bademosi).

  • Q1 IND 4th & 8 at the 75
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36%

    (1:19) (Punt formation) 1-P.McAfee punts 47 yards to DET 28, Center-45-M.Overton, out of bounds. PENALTY on DET-29-J.Bademosi, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at DET 28.

  • Q2 IND 4th & 4 at the 32
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 42% p(FG) 71%

    (4:57) 4-A.Vinatieri 50 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-M.Overton, Holder-1-P.McAfee.

  • Q3 DET 4th & 6 at the 71
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 44%

    (12:48) 6-S.Martin punts 56 yards to IND 15, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, fair catch by 11-Q.Bray.

  • Q3 DET 4th & 17 at the 88
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30%

    (6:37) 6-S.Martin punts 59 yards to IND 29, Center-48-D.Muhlbach. 11-Q.Bray to IND 38 for 9 yards (52-A.Williams).

  • Q3 IND 4th & 10 at the 62
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31%

    (6:05) 1-P.McAfee punts 48 yards to DET 14, Center-45-M.Overton, out of bounds. PENALTY on IND-41-M.Farley, Player Out of Bounds on Punt, 15 yards, enforced at DET 14.

  • Q4 IND 4th & 6 at the 22
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34% p(FG) 88%

    (14:22) 4-A.Vinatieri 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-M.Overton, Holder-1-P.McAfee.

  • Q4 DET 4th & 4 at the 69
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 51%

    (12:48) 6-S.Martin punts 63 yards to IND 6, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, out of bounds.