Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 8 at the 75

Indianapolis Colts 0 – Detroit Lions 7

What Actually Happened

(1:19) (Punt formation) 1-P.McAfee punts 47 yards to DET 28, Center-45-M.Overton, out of bounds. PENALTY on DET-29-J.Bademosi, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at DET 28.

The Three Options

GO -1.94 EP

36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 67, worth +1.86 EP
64% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 75, worth -4.10 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (92 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model