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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Detroit Lions 4th & 17 at the 88

Detroit Lions 21 – Indianapolis Colts 18

What Actually Happened

(6:37) 6-S.Martin punts 59 yards to IND 29, Center-48-D.Muhlbach. 11-Q.Bray to IND 38 for 9 yards (52-A.Williams).

The Three Options

GO -3.29 EP
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 71, worth +1.10 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 88, worth -5.18 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (105 yards).

PUNT -2.64 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 46, worth -2.64 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model