Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 8 at the 73

Indianapolis Colts 0 – Detroit Lions 7

(3:18) 1-P.McAfee punts 52 yards to DET 21, Center-45-M.Overton. 12-A.Roberts to DET 20 for -1 yards (35-D.Morris).

The Three Options

GO -1.92 EP

36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.98 EP
64% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 73, worth -4.11 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (90 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model