4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 12 at the 48

Indianapolis Colts 0 – Detroit Lions 0

What Actually Happened

(9:16) (Punt formation) 1-P.McAfee punts 48 yards to end zone, Center-45-M.Overton, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -0.70 EP
  • 27% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 36, worth +3.85 EP
  • 73% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 48, worth -2.40 EP
KICK -0.95 EP
  • 31% chance to make a 65-yard field goal: 3 points, then Detroit Lions takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.44 EP
  • 69% chance to miss: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 49, worth -2.49 EP
PUNT +0.10 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Detroit Lions would take over around their own 14, worth +0.10 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model