Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Detroit Lions 4th & 6 at the 76

Detroit Lions 7 – Indianapolis Colts 0

(2:00) 6-S.Martin punts 57 yards to IND 19, Center-48-D.Muhlbach. 11-Q.Bray to IND 23 for 4 yards (26-D.Carey; 29-J.Bademosi).

The Three Options

GO -2.02 EP

45% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.06 EP
55% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 76, worth -4.55 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (93 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model