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Cleveland Browns

HC Hue Jackson
@
PHI Home

Philadelphia Eagles

HC Doug Pederson
Sunday 2016-09-11 · 13:00 Lincoln Financial Field, Philadelphia US ☀️ Clear Spread 3.5 O/U 41.0

Win Probability

CLE
39.4%
PHI
60.6%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>slight edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • CLE offense: -0.093 EPA/play over its last 8 games (22nd in the league)
  • PHI defense: +0.145 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (31st in the league)
  • PHI offense: -0.073 EPA/play over its last 8 games (20th in the league)
  • CLE defense: +0.088 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (30th in the league)
  • QB edge to PHI: Carson Wentz (PHI) -0.060 vs Robert Griffin (CLE) -0.156 EPA/dropback

Predicted Final Score

CLE 19
–
PHI 22
Projected margin: PHI by 3 Projected total: 41

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 1

CLE

Marcus Burley CB Out Groin

PHI

Bryce Treggs WR Out Knee
Vinny Curry DE Questionable Knee
Trey Burton TE Questionable Calf

Pulled fresh for 2016 week 1 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

CLE 10
–
PHI 29

Prediction missed by 16 pts on margin, 2 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 09:56 TD PHI (9:56) (Shotgun) 11-C.Wentz pass deep left to 81-J.Matthews for 19 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CLE 0 – PHI 6
  • Q2 12:33 FG PHI (12:33) 6-C.Sturgis 22 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Dorenbos, Holder-8-D.Jones. CLE 0 – PHI 10
  • Q2 09:15 TD CLE (9:15) 34-I.Crowell left end for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CLE 6 – PHI 10
  • Q2 00:28 FG PHI (:28) 6-C.Sturgis 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Dorenbos, Holder-8-D.Jones. CLE 7 – PHI 13
  • Q3 14:01 FG CLE (14:01) 2-P.Murray 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-C.Hughlett, Holder-4-B.Colquitt. CLE 10 – PHI 13
  • Q3 10:54 SAF PHI (10:54) (Shotgun) 10-R.Griffin Aborted. 74-C.Erving FUMBLES at CLE 15, ball out of bounds in End Zone, SAFETY. CLE 10 – PHI 15
  • Q3 06:23 TD PHI (6:23) (Shotgun) 11-C.Wentz pass deep right to 17-N.Agholor for 35 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CLE 10 – PHI 21
  • Q4 01:16 TD PHI (1:16) 24-R.Mathews left end for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. CLE 10 – PHI 28

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 CLE 4th & 5 at the 70
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 46%

    (8:44) 4-B.Colquitt punts 49 yards to PHI 21, Center-47-C.Hughlett. 43-D.Sproles to PHI 26 for 5 yards (47-C.Hughlett).

  • Q1 PHI 4th & 12 at the 67
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31%

    (6:25) 8-D.Jones punts 67 yards to end zone, Center-46-J.Dorenbos, Touchback.

  • Q1 CLE 4th & 7 at the 77
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 41%

    (4:30) 4-B.Colquitt punts 59 yards to PHI 18, Center-47-C.Hughlett. 43-D.Sproles to CLE 42 for 40 yards (24-I.Campbell).

  • Q1 PHI 4th & 8 at the 28
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32% p(FG) 75%

    (:51) 6-C.Sturgis 46 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-46-J.Dorenbos, Holder-8-D.Jones.

  • Q2 CLE 4th & 5 at the 59
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 44%

    (14:50) Direct snap to 29-D.Johnson. 29-D.Johnson right end to CLE 35 for -6 yards (54-K.Grugier-Hill).

  • Q2 PHI 4th & 4 at the 4
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.65 EP
    p(convert) 40% p(FG) 98%

    (12:33) 6-C.Sturgis 22 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Dorenbos, Holder-8-D.Jones.

  • Q2 PHI 4th & 5 at the 72
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 45%

    (7:43) 8-D.Jones punts 72 yards to end zone, Center-46-J.Dorenbos, Touchback.

  • Q2 PHI 4th & 10 at the 19
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28% p(FG) 89%

    (:28) 6-C.Sturgis 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Dorenbos, Holder-8-D.Jones.

  • Q3 CLE 4th & 10 at the 17
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28% p(FG) 91%

    (14:01) 2-P.Murray 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-C.Hughlett, Holder-4-B.Colquitt.

  • Q3 PHI 4th & 10 at the 52
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32% p(FG) 17%

    (11:02) 8-D.Jones punts 37 yards to CLE 15, Center-46-J.Dorenbos, fair catch by 22-T.Williams.

  • Q3 PHI 4th & 4 at the 40
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 45% p(FG) 44%

    (7:04) (Shotgun) 11-C.Wentz pass short middle to 86-Z.Ertz to CLE 35 for 5 yards (33-J.Poyer) [58-C.Kirksey].

  • Q3 CLE 4th & 2 at the 57
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.91 EP
    p(convert) 59%

    (3:34) 4-B.Colquitt punts 42 yards to PHI 15, Center-47-C.Hughlett. 43-D.Sproles to PHI 21 for 6 yards (54-D.Alexander).

  • Q4 PHI 4th & 14 at the 43
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 26% p(FG) 36%

    (15:00) 8-D.Jones punts 42 yards to CLE 1, Center-46-J.Dorenbos, downed by PHI-26-J.Watkins.

  • Q4 CLE 4th & 7 at the 96
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 43%

    (13:56) 4-B.Colquitt punts 43 yards to CLE 47, Center-47-C.Hughlett, fair catch by 43-D.Sproles.

  • Q4 PHI 4th & 8 at the 45
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34% p(FG) 31%

    (11:41) 8-D.Jones punts 45 yards to end zone, Center-46-J.Dorenbos, Touchback.

  • Q4 CLE 4th & 9 at the 79
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37%

    (10:08) 4-B.Colquitt punts 58 yards to PHI 21, Center-47-C.Hughlett. 43-D.Sproles to PHI 29 for 8 yards (34-I.Crowell).

  • Q4 PHI 4th & 16 at the 40 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 24% p(FG) 44%

    (4:35) 8-D.Jones punts 32 yards to CLE 8, Center-46-J.Dorenbos, downed by PHI-56-B.Braman.

  • Q4 CLE 4th & 3 at the 85 late-game
    Chose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +0.30 EP
    p(convert) 56%

    (3:41) (Shotgun) 10-R.Griffin pass incomplete short left to 16-A.Hawkins.