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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Cleveland Browns 4th & 5 at the 59

Cleveland Browns 0 – Philadelphia Eagles 7

What Actually Happened

(14:50) Direct snap to 29-D.Johnson. 29-D.Johnson right end to CLE 35 for -6 yards (54-K.Grugier-Hill).

The Three Options

GO -0.79 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 44% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 54, worth +2.37 EP
  • 56% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 59, worth -3.27 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (76 yards).

PUNT -0.90 EP
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 18, worth -0.90 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model