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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 4 at the 4

Philadelphia Eagles 7 – Cleveland Browns 0

What Actually Happened

(12:33) 6-C.Sturgis 22 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Dorenbos, Holder-8-D.Jones.

The Three Options

GO +2.76 EP
Model's Pick
  • 40% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +6.11 EP
  • 60% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 4, worth +0.49 EP
KICK +2.11 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 21-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.18 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 21, worth -0.61 EP
PUNT +0.04 EP
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 11, worth +0.04 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.65 EP