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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 10 at the 52

Philadelphia Eagles 13 – Cleveland Browns 10

What Actually Happened

(11:02) 8-D.Jones punts 37 yards to CLE 15, Center-46-J.Dorenbos, fair catch by 22-T.Williams.

The Three Options

GO -0.71 EP
  • 32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 42, worth +3.22 EP
  • 68% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 52, worth -2.56 EP
KICK -1.64 EP
  • 17% chance to make a 69-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.46 EP
  • 83% chance to miss: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 49, worth -2.47 EP
PUNT +0.10 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 15, worth +0.10 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model