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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 4 at the 40

Philadelphia Eagles 15 – Cleveland Browns 10

What Actually Happened

(7:04) (Shotgun) 11-C.Wentz pass short middle to 86-Z.Ertz to CLE 35 for 5 yards (33-J.Poyer) [58-C.Kirksey].

The Three Options

GO +0.80 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 45% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 36, worth +3.66 EP
  • 55% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 40, worth -1.54 EP
KICK -0.23 EP
  • 44% chance to make a 57-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.57 EP
  • 56% chance to miss: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 49, worth -2.41 EP
PUNT +0.46 EP
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 11, worth +0.46 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model