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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Cleveland Browns 4th & 2 at the 57

Cleveland Browns 10 – Philadelphia Eagles 22

What Actually Happened

(3:34) 4-B.Colquitt punts 42 yards to PHI 15, Center-47-C.Hughlett. 43-D.Sproles to PHI 21 for 6 yards (54-D.Alexander).

The Three Options

GO -0.20 EP
Model's Pick
  • 59% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 55, worth +1.87 EP
  • 41% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 57, worth -3.20 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (74 yards).

PUNT -1.11 EP
What Happened
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 17, worth -1.11 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.91 EP