Win Probability
Confidence: clear edge Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the full track record.
Key Insights
- QB edge to NYJ: Matt Cassel (DAL) -0.248 vs Ryan Fitzpatrick (NYJ) +0.139 EPA/dropback
- DAL offense: -0.121 EPA/play over its last 8 games (29th in the league)
- NYJ defense: -0.023 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (13th in the league)
- Indoors — weather neutralised
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Predicted Final Score
The range under each score is this model's typical error on unseen games — ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat the bigger number as the middle of that range, not a precise call — see the full track record.
Injury Report — Week 15
NYJ
DAL
Pulled fresh for 2015 week 15 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.
Actual Result
Prediction missed by 0 pts on margin, 6 pts on total.
Scoring Summary
- Q1 10:50 FG DAL (10:50) (Field Goal formation) 5-D.Bailey 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-91-L.Ladouceur, Holder-6-C.Jones. NYJ 0 – DAL 3
- Q1 00:35 TD NYJ (:35) (Shotgun) 29-B.Powell right guard for 12 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NYJ 6 – DAL 3
- Q2 07:06 FG NYJ (7:06) (Field Goal formation) 8-R.Bullock 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-T.Purdum, Holder-4-R.Quigley. NYJ 9 – DAL 3
- Q2 01:25 TD DAL (1:25) (Shotgun) 17-K.Moore pass short left to 88-D.Bryant for 10 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NYJ 9 – DAL 9
- Q3 03:49 FG DAL (3:49) (Field Goal formation) 5-D.Bailey 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-91-L.Ladouceur, Holder-6-C.Jones. NYJ 9 – DAL 13
- Q4 09:01 TD NYJ (9:01) (Shotgun) 14-R.Fitzpatrick pass short left to 87-E.Decker for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NYJ 15 – DAL 13
- Q4 02:00 FG DAL (2:00) (Field Goal formation) 5-D.Bailey 50 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-91-L.Ladouceur, Holder-6-C.Jones. Bailey's kick glanced off the right upright post before falling over the crossbar. NYJ 16 – DAL 16
- Q4 00:41 FG NYJ (:41) (Field Goal formation) 8-R.Bullock 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-T.Purdum, Holder-4-R.Quigley. NYJ 19 – DAL 16
Fourth-Down Decisions
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Q1 DAL 4th & 4 at the 9Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 39% p(FG) 97%
(10:50) (Field Goal formation) 5-D.Bailey 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-91-L.Ladouceur, Holder-6-C.Jones.
See the full breakdown → -
Q1 NYJ 4th & 7 at the 82Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 41%
(9:46) (Punt formation) 4-R.Quigley punts 25 yards to NYJ 43, Center-46-T.Purdum, out of bounds.
See the full breakdown → -
Q1 NYJ 4th & 1 at the 3Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 63% p(FG) 98%
(3:17) 33-C.Ivory up the middle to DAL 4 for -1 yards (90-D.Lawrence).
See the full breakdown → -
Q1 DAL 4th & 6 at the 92Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 43%
(2:24) (Punt formation) 6-C.Jones punts 52 yards to NYJ 40, Center-91-L.Ladouceur, fair catch by 11-J.Kerley.
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Q2 DAL 4th & 13 at the 69Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 28%
(13:30) (Punt formation) 6-C.Jones punts 49 yards to NYJ 20, Center-91-L.Ladouceur, out of bounds.
See the full breakdown → -
Q2 NYJ 4th & 1 at the 71Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.24 EPp(convert) 71%
(11:24) (Punt formation) 4-R.Quigley punts 45 yards to DAL 26, Center-46-T.Purdum, out of bounds.
See the full breakdown → -
Q2 NYJ 4th & 4 at the 18Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 42% p(FG) 92%
(7:06) (Field Goal formation) 8-R.Bullock 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-T.Purdum, Holder-4-R.Quigley.
See the full breakdown → -
Q2 DAL 4th & 7 at the 62Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 36%
(4:49) (Punt formation) 6-C.Jones punts 51 yards to NYJ 11, Center-91-L.Ladouceur, out of bounds.
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Q2 NYJ 4th & 8 at the 87Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 40%
(2:00) (Punt formation) 4-R.Quigley punts 57 yards to DAL 30, Center-46-T.Purdum. 13-L.Whitehead to DAL 45 for 15 yards (29-B.Powell; 57-T.Reilly).
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Q2 NYJ 4th & 7 at the 27Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 34% p(FG) 82%
(:03) (Field Goal formation) 8-R.Bullock 45 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-46-T.Purdum, Holder-4-R.Quigley.
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Q3 NYJ 4th & 9 at the 42Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 32% p(FG) 49%
(9:31) (Punt formation) 4-R.Quigley punts 29 yards to DAL 13, Center-46-T.Purdum. 11-C.Beasley to DAL 18 for 5 yards (55-L.Mauldin).
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Q3 DAL 4th & 8 at the 19Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 29% p(FG) 91%
(3:49) (Field Goal formation) 5-D.Bailey 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-91-L.Ladouceur, Holder-6-C.Jones.
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Q3 NYJ 4th & 7 at the 57Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 38%
(1:58) (Punt formation) 4-R.Quigley punts 47 yards to DAL 10, Center-46-T.Purdum. 13-L.Whitehead to DAL 13 for 3 yards (85-J.Cumberland).
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Q4 DAL 4th & 13 at the 69Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 28%
(14:15) (Punt formation) 6-C.Jones punts 46 yards to NYJ 23, Center-91-L.Ladouceur. 11-J.Kerley ran ob at NYJ 30 for 7 yards.
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Q4 DAL 4th & 2 at the 46 late-gameChose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 55% p(FG) 39%
(4:13) (Shotgun) 17-K.Moore pass short middle to 11-C.Beasley to NYJ 37 for 9 yards (31-A.Cromartie). Pass complete on a crossing pattern.
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Q4 DAL 4th & 5 at the 32 late-gameChose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 38% p(FG) 73%
(2:00) (Field Goal formation) 5-D.Bailey 50 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-91-L.Ladouceur, Holder-6-C.Jones. Bailey's kick glanced off the right upright post before falling over the crossbar.
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Q4 NYJ 4th & 6 at the 22 late-gameChose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 36% p(FG) 88%
(:41) (Field Goal formation) 8-R.Bullock 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-T.Purdum, Holder-4-R.Quigley.
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