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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 13 at the 69

Dallas Cowboys 3 – New York Jets 6

What Actually Happened

(13:30) (Punt formation) 6-C.Jones punts 49 yards to NYJ 20, Center-91-L.Ladouceur, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -2.04 EP
  • 28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 56, worth +2.31 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 69, worth -3.73 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (86 yards).

PUNT -1.03 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 27, worth -1.03 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model