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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 2 at the 46

Dallas Cowboys 13 – New York Jets 16

What Actually Happened

(4:13) (Shotgun) 17-K.Moore pass short middle to 11-C.Beasley to NYJ 37 for 9 yards (31-A.Cromartie). Pass complete on a crossing pattern.

The Three Options

GO +0.45 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 55% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 44, worth +2.44 EP
  • 45% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 46, worth -2.01 EP
KICK -0.44 EP
  • 39% chance to make a 63-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Jets takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.31 EP
  • 61% chance to miss: New York Jets takes over around their own 49, worth -2.18 EP
PUNT -0.37 EP
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 13, worth -0.37 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model