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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New York Jets 4th & 9 at the 42

New York Jets 9 – Dallas Cowboys 10

What Actually Happened

(9:31) (Punt formation) 4-R.Quigley punts 29 yards to DAL 13, Center-46-T.Purdum. 11-C.Beasley to DAL 18 for 5 yards (55-L.Mauldin).

The Three Options

GO -0.34 EP
  • 32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 33, worth +3.76 EP
  • 68% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 42, worth -2.30 EP
KICK -0.47 EP
  • 49% chance to make a 59-yard field goal: 3 points, then Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.02 EP
  • 51% chance to miss: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 49, worth -2.86 EP
PUNT -0.31 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 12, worth -0.31 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model