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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New York Jets 4th & 1 at the 3

New York Jets 0 – Dallas Cowboys 3

What Actually Happened

(3:17) 33-C.Ivory up the middle to DAL 4 for -1 yards (90-D.Lawrence).

The Three Options

GO +3.85 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 63% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 2, worth +6.14 EP
  • 37% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 3, worth -0.09 EP
KICK +1.80 EP
  • 98% chance to make a 20-yard field goal: 3 points, then Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +1.86 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 21, worth -1.03 EP
PUNT -0.37 EP
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 11, worth -0.37 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model