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Detroit Lions

HC Jim Caldwell
@
NO Home

New Orleans Saints

HC Sean Payton
Monday 2015-12-21 · 20:30 Mercedes-Benz Superdome, New Orleans US 🏟 Dome Spread 2.5 O/U 52.0

Win Probability

DET
45.2%
NO
54.8%
🏟 Dome

Confidence: <strong>coin flip</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • NO defense: +0.145 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (32nd in the league)
  • NO offense: +0.069 EPA/play over its last 8 games (7th in the league)
  • QB edge to NO: Drew Brees (NO) +0.099 vs Matthew Stafford (DET) -0.012 EPA/dropback
  • Indoors — weather neutralised

Predicted Final Score

DET 24
–
NO 25
Projected margin: NO by 1 Projected total: 49

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 15

DET

Eric Ebron TE Questionable Illness
Calvin Johnson WR Questionable Ankle
Haloti Ngata DT Questionable Neck
Michael Ola T Questionable Knee
Glover Quin S Questionable Ankle
Lance Moore WR Probable Ankle

NO

Marques Colston WR Probable Not Injury Related
Terron Armstead T Probable Knee
Jairus Byrd S Probable Knee
Jahri Evans G Probable Ankle
John Jenkins DT Probable Concussion
Zach Strief T Probable Hip

Pulled fresh for 2015 week 15 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

DET 35
–
NO 27

Prediction missed by 9 pts on margin, 13 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 07:56 TD DET (7:56) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short right to 15-G.Tate for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. Pass 0, YAC 1 DET 6 – NO 0
  • Q1 01:11 FG NO (1:11) 5-K.Forbath 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Drescher, Holder-6-T.Morstead. DET 7 – NO 3
  • Q2 14:18 TD DET (14:18) 9-M.Stafford pass short right to 46-M.Burton for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Pass 1, YAC 3 DET 13 – NO 3
  • Q2 04:32 TD DET (4:32) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short left to 15-G.Tate for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on NO-39-B.Browner, Illegal Use of Hands, declined. Pass 5, YAC 0 DET 20 – NO 3
  • Q3 11:58 TD DET (11:58) (Shotgun) 21-A.Abdullah left end for 15 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DET 27 – NO 3
  • Q3 05:10 TD NO (5:10) 9-D.Brees pass deep left to 10-B.Cooks for 27 yards, TOUCHDOWN [94-E.Ansah]. Penalty on DET-32-J.Ihedigbo, Defensive Holding, declined. PENALTY on DET-94-E.Ansah, Roughing the Passer, 15 yards, enforced between downs. Pass 25, YAC 2. The roughing the passer penalty was assessed on the kickoff. DET 28 – NO 9
  • Q4 13:06 FG NO (13:06) 5-K.Forbath 22 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Drescher, Holder-6-T.Morstead. DET 28 – NO 13
  • Q4 10:11 TD NO (10:11) (Shotgun) 9-D.Brees pass short middle to 12-M.Colston for 11 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Pass 6, YAC 5 DET 28 – NO 19
  • Q4 05:28 TD DET (5:28) 77-C.Lucas reported in as eligible. 35-J.Bell left guard for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. DET 34 – NO 20
  • Q4 01:58 TD NO (1:58) (Shotgun) 9-D.Brees pass short right to 82-B.Watson for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. Pass 0, YAC 1 DET 35 – NO 26

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 NO 4th & 5 at the 75
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 48%

    (13:38) 6-T.Morstead punts 46 yards to DET 29, Center-47-J.Drescher. 15-G.Tate to DET 43 for 14 yards (58-O.Gwacham).

  • Q1 DET 4th & 8 at the 55
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38%

    (11:25) 6-S.Martin punts 49 yards to NO 6, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, downed by DET-26-D.Carey.

  • Q1 NO 4th & 8 at the 92
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 42%

    (10:32) 6-T.Morstead punts 32 yards to NO 40, Center-47-J.Drescher, out of bounds.

  • Q1 NO 4th & 8 at the 27
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34% p(FG) 82%

    (1:11) 5-K.Forbath 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Drescher, Holder-6-T.Morstead.

  • Q2 NO 4th & 12 at the 71
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33%

    (11:15) 6-T.Morstead punts 47 yards to DET 24, Center-47-J.Drescher. 15-G.Tate to DET 31 for 7 yards (56-M.Mauti).

  • Q3 NO 4th & 11 at the 81
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36%

    (10:20) 6-T.Morstead punts 47 yards to DET 34, Center-47-J.Drescher, fair catch by 15-G.Tate.

  • Q3 DET 4th & 12 at the 68
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33%

    (7:42) 6-S.Martin punts 43 yards to NO 25, Center-48-D.Muhlbach. 10-B.Cooks ran ob at NO 31 for 6 yards (95-B.Copeland).

  • Q3 DET 4th & 9 at the 62
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36%

    (1:33) 6-S.Martin punts 41 yards to NO 21, Center-48-D.Muhlbach. 10-B.Cooks to NO 27 for 6 yards (25-T.Riddick).

  • Q4 NO 4th & 4 at the 4
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.73 EP
    p(convert) 42% p(FG) 98%

    (13:06) 5-K.Forbath 22 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Drescher, Holder-6-T.Morstead.

  • Q4 NO 4th & 6 at the 76 late-game
    Chose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +0.40 EP
    p(convert) 45%

    (4:29) (Shotgun) 9-D.Brees pass short left to 82-B.Watson pushed ob at NO 33 for 9 yards (59-T.Whitehead). NO-82-B.Watson was injured during the play. His return is Probable. Pass 9, YAC 0 Detroit challenged the pass completion ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands. (Timeout #3.)

  • Q4 NO 4th & 5 at the 35 late-game
    Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.67 EP
    p(convert) 43% p(FG) 66%

    (3:06) (Shotgun) 9-D.Brees pass short left to 83-W.Snead to DET 23 for 12 yards (24-N.Lawson; 32-J.Ihedigbo). Pass 3, YAC 9

  • Q4 DET 4th & 20 at the 20 late-game
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 21% p(FG) 90%

    (:14) 5-M.Prater 38 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, Holder-6-S.Martin.