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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New Orleans Saints 4th & 4 at the 4

New Orleans Saints 10 – Detroit Lions 28

What Actually Happened

(13:06) 5-K.Forbath 22 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Drescher, Holder-6-T.Morstead.

The Three Options

GO +3.29 EP
Model's Pick
  • 42% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +6.57 EP
  • 58% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 4, worth +0.89 EP
KICK +2.57 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 21-yard field goal: 3 points, then Detroit Lions takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.63 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 21, worth -0.32 EP
PUNT +0.41 EP
  • Detroit Lions would take over around their own 11, worth +0.41 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.73 EP