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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New Orleans Saints 4th & 8 at the 27

New Orleans Saints 0 – Detroit Lions 7

What Actually Happened

(1:11) 5-K.Forbath 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Drescher, Holder-6-T.Morstead.

The Three Options

GO +1.02 EP
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 19, worth +4.87 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 27, worth -0.97 EP
KICK +1.49 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 82% chance to make a 44-yard field goal: 3 points, then Detroit Lions takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.24 EP
  • 18% chance to miss: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 37, worth -1.85 EP
PUNT -0.02 EP
  • Detroit Lions would take over around their own 11, worth -0.02 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model