Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Detroit Lions 4th & 8 at the 55

Detroit Lions 0 – New Orleans Saints 0

(11:25) 6-S.Martin punts 49 yards to NO 6, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, downed by DET-26-D.Carey.

The Three Options

GO -1.03 EP

38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 47, worth +2.75 EP
62% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 55, worth -3.29 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (72 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model