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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Detroit Lions 4th & 20 at the 20

Detroit Lions 35 – New Orleans Saints 27

What Actually Happened

(:14) 5-M.Prater 38 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, Holder-6-S.Martin.

The Three Options

GO +1.47 EP
  • 21% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +6.94 EP
  • 79% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 20, worth +0.01 EP
KICK +2.69 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 90% chance to make a 37-yard field goal: 3 points, then New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +3.00 EP
  • 10% chance to miss: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 30, worth -0.09 EP
PUNT +0.04 EP
  • New Orleans Saints would take over around their own 11, worth +0.04 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model